Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 SC Freiburg Merkur Spiel-Arena

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg: Fortuna Düsseldorf to win

Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.35 xG edges SC Freiburg's 1.1 xG, and the model gives the home side a 42.5% chance of victory – the clearest edge in this cup tie.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win Lost

Strong · xG edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Lost

50.6% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost

55.7% model probability

Both clubs are meeting in the DFB‑Pokal, where a single knockout game decides who progresses. Freiburg arrive on the back of a mixed LDLW run, while Düsseldorf's recent league form is not supplied, leaving the statistical picture to rely on season‑long scoring rates and head‑to‑head history.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win Lost Slight lean Strong · xG edge

The home side's higher expected goals and a 42.5% win probability make a victory the most likely outcome.

Show the maths

The model assigns Düsseldorf 1.35 expected goals versus Freiburg's 1.1, a 0.25 xG differential. Converting that gap into win odds yields a 42.5% chance for Düsseldorf and only 30.5% for Freiburg, with the remaining 27.1% split as a draw. Because the win probability exceeds the draw and away win odds by more than ten points, the model flags a home win as the clear pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Lost 50.6% model probability

With Fortuna Düsseldorf averaging 1.35 expected goals and SC Freiburg averaging 1.1, the model gives a 50.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.4% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.35, SC Freiburg 1.1) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 49.4% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 50.6% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost 55.7% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.35 + SC Freiburg 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 55.7% chance against 44.3% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.35 + SC Freiburg 1.1 = 2.5 combined): 44.3% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 55.7% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fortuna Düsseldorf at 42.5%, the draw at 27.1%, and SC Freiburg at 30.5% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Fortuna Düsseldorf expected goals

1.35

SC Freiburg expected goals

1.1

Model BTTS probability

50.6%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.8%

21-0

11.6%

30-1

9.5%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the five most recent meetings, Düsseldorf have two wins (2‑0 on 2018‑12‑15 and 2‑0 on 2020‑02‑22) and one draw (1‑1 on 2019‑05‑05), while Freiburg have two wins (1‑3 on 2025‑10‑29 and 1‑2 on 2019‑09‑29). This slight edge for Düsseldorf aligns with the model’s home win pick.

Date	Result	Competition
29 Oct 2025	Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 SC Freiburg	DFB Pokal
22 Feb 2020	SC Freiburg 0-2 Fortuna Dusseldorf	Bundesliga
29 Sep 2019	Fortuna Dusseldorf 1-2 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga
5 May 2019	SC Freiburg 1-1 Fortuna Dusseldorf	Bundesliga
15 Dec 2018	Fortuna Dusseldorf 2-0 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Lineup preview on mshale.com

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg?

SC Freiburg won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Fortuna Düsseldorf to win.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 SC Freiburg (full time).

When was Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf played SC Freiburg on Sun 23 Aug · 17:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Merkur Spiel-Arena.

More DFB-Pokal This Week

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Given the modest xG advantage and a head‑to‑head record that favours Düsseldorf in recent meetings, the model’s strongest signal points to a home win.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups