Inter Miami vs CF Montreal: Inter Miami to win
Inter Miami sit on a 2.4 expected‑goals edge while Montreal manage only 1.4. The model backs Miami at 59.5% to take all three points.
Both sides come into the fixture with mixed recent form – Miami have slipped to a WDLDL run and Montreal sit at LDDWD – but the underlying numbers still favor a home win.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Miami a 59.5% chance of winning versus Montreal’s 21.4%, driven by a superior expected‑goals profile.
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With Inter Miami averaging 2.4 expected goals and CF Montreal averaging 1.4, the model gives a 68.4% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 31.6% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Inter Miami 2.4 + CF Montreal 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 73.0% chance against 27.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Inter Miami at 59.5%, the draw at 19.0%, and CF Montreal at 21.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Inter Miami
Miami’s last five league outings read WDLDL, highlighted by a 1‑0 win at Montreal (away) and a 2‑2 draw with Columbus Crew at home. The recent 1‑2 loss to Toronto FC at home shows they can be vulnerable, yet the win against Montreal and the draw against Columbus indicate they still produce goals, supporting a home win here.
CF Montreal
Montreal’s LDDWD run includes a 2‑1 away win over Columbus Crew and a 2‑2 home draw with Los Angeles Galaxy. The win in Columbus shows they can snag points on the road, but three draws and a loss in the other matches suggest they struggle to convert chances, dampening their chance of an upset.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Miami have won four, including a 1‑0 victory on July 25 and a 4‑2 thrashing on May 28, while Montreal’s only win came 2‑3 in March 2024, underscoring Miami’s dominance in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Jul 2025 | CF Montreal 1-4 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 28 May 2025 | Inter Miami 4-2 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 11 May 2024 | CF Montreal 2-3 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Inter Miami 2-3 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Inter Miami: T. Allende (Knee Injury), Y. Bright (Red Card), Micael (Injury), S. Morales (Muscle Injury)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), E. Morales (Toe Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Inter Miami vs CF Montreal?
Inter Miami won 7-1. Our pre-match pick was Inter Miami to win.
What was the final score of Inter Miami vs CF Montreal?
Inter Miami 7-1 CF Montreal (full time).
When was Inter Miami vs CF Montreal?
Inter Miami played CF Montreal on Sun 30 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Nu Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the clear xG differential and Miami’s historical success in the recent head‑to‑head, the most logical outcome is a Miami victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
