Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls: Both teams to score - Yes
Los Angeles FC sit on a 1.9 xG home average while the Red Bulls bring 1.4 xG on the road, setting up a clash where goals are likely to flow both ways.
Both clubs have struggled to convert their chances into wins recently – LAFC have gone five games without a victory and the Red Bulls have only managed one win in their last five – but each side still possesses a decent scoring rate, making the encounter a potential goal‑fest.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 64.1% chance to both sides scoring, driven by LAFC’s 1.9 xG at home and the Red Bulls’ 1.4 xG away combined with their defensive vulnerabilities.
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With Los Angeles FC averaging 1.9 expected goals and New York Red Bulls averaging 1.4, the model gives a 64.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 35.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Los Angeles FC 1.9 + New York Red Bulls 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Los Angeles FC at 49.3%, the draw at 22.3%, and New York Red Bulls at 28.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Los Angeles FC
LAFC’s recent five‑game run (DLLDD) includes a 1‑1 draw away at Vancouver and a 0‑0 draw away at DC United, showing they can keep clean sheets but also struggle to win. The two 0‑1 defeats to San Diego and Colorado highlight a thin margin in front of goal, reinforcing the view that while they may score, they will also concede, supporting a BTTS outcome.
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls’ five‑game stretch (WLLDL) features a 3‑2 home win over Orlando City and a 1‑1 home draw with Chicago Fire, proving they can both score and leak goals. The recent 1‑3 home loss to Philadelphia Union underlines defensive lapses, which together with their ability to find the net backs the BTTS pick.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings, there have been three matches with both sides scoring – a 2‑2 draw in 2024 and a 4‑2 win for LAFC in 2019 – indicating that the head‑to‑head record leans toward both teams finding the net.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2024 | Los Angeles FC 2-2 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Jun 2022 | Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Aug 2019 | Los Angeles FC 4-2 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Aug 2018 | New York Red Bulls 2-1 Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Los Angeles FC: T. Hasal (Arm Injury), Igor Jesus (Knee Injury), S. Palencia (Groin Injury), J. Shaffelburg (Leg Injury)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Los Angeles FC won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls (full time).
When was Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Los Angeles FC played New York Red Bulls on Thu 10 Sep · 03:30 BST in the MLS at BMO Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams averaging more than a goal per match and the Red Bulls conceding heavily away, the most logical expectation is that each side will find the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
