Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution: New England Revolution to win
The Galaxy average 1.1 xG at home while the Revolution post 1.4 xG away, and the model gives the visitors a 43.8% win probability versus 29.6% for the hosts.
Los Angeles Galaxy have collected just one win in their last five league outings, while New England Revolution have rebounded from a shaky start to claim two wins in the same span.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 43.8% chance of a Revolution win versus 29.6% for the Galaxy, reflecting the visitors’ superior away expected goals.
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With Los Angeles Galaxy averaging 1.1 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.4, the model gives a 50.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Los Angeles Galaxy 1.1 + New England Revolution 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Los Angeles Galaxy at 29.6%, the draw at 26.6%, and New England Revolution at 43.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Los Angeles Galaxy
Galaxy’s last five results read D 0‑0 vs FC Dallas, L 0‑1 at Houston, W 1‑0 vs San Jose, D 2‑2 at Montreal and L 1‑3 at San Diego. The lone win and two draws show limited scoring, and the three defeats underscore defensive frailties, which dampens their chances of securing a victory here.
New England Revolution
Revolution’s recent five outings are L 0‑2 vs Houston, L 1‑2 at Toronto, W 3‑0 at DC United, D 1‑1 vs NYCFC and W 3‑1 at Columbus. The two convincing wins, each with three goals, demonstrate a potent away attack that aligns with their higher expected goals, bolstering the case for an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the Galaxy have won three (including a 2‑1 win in 2022) while the Revolution have won two, indicating a slight historical edge for Los Angeles but not enough to outweigh the current away xG advantage for New England.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2022 | New England Revolution 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 3 Jun 2019 | Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Jul 2018 | New England Revolution 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Jul 2017 | New England Revolution 4-3 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 8 May 2016 | Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Los Angeles Galaxy: Joao Klauss (Foot Injury), J. Marcinkowski (Red Card), R. Puig (Knee Injury), L. Sanabria (Yellow Cards)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), T. Smith (Inactive), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
Los Angeles Galaxy won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was New England Revolution to win.
What was the final score of Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England Revolution (full time).
When was Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
Los Angeles Galaxy played New England Revolution on Sun 6 Sep · 02:30 BST in the MLS at Dignity Health Sports Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of higher expected goals for the visitors and a clearer win probability in the model points to a favorable outcome for New England.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
