Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes: Over 2.5 goals
San Jose's 2.2 xG outpaces LA Galaxy's 1.1 xG, and the model puts the Over 2.5 goals market at 64 % probability. Expect a high‑scoring affair in this MLS clash.
Both clubs have struggled to keep clean sheets, but the Earthquakes have been prolific on the road while the Galaxy have barely reached the back of the net at home. The contrast in offensive output sets up a match where goals are likely to flow.
Jonesy's Verdict
The combined xG of 3.3 and a 64 % model probability make a goal‑filled match the most likely outcome.
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With Los Angeles Galaxy averaging 1.1 expected goals and San Jose Earthquakes averaging 2.2, the model gives a 59.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Los Angeles Galaxy 1.1 + San Jose Earthquakes 2.2) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Los Angeles Galaxy at 18.0%, the draw at 19.7%, and San Jose Earthquakes at 62.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy’s last five league results (DLLDD) include a 1‑1 draw with Houston Dynamo at home and a 0‑3 loss to Los Angeles FC, both at home. Scoring just once in three of those matches indicates a low goal output, supporting a scenario where the Galaxy rely on the Earthquakes to provide the bulk of the goals in this pick.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes’ recent run (LWLDL) features a 3‑1 away win at Portland Timbers and a 2‑4 away loss to FC Cincinnati. Scoring three in the Portland game and two in the FC Dallas loss shows they can find the net on the road even when conceding, bolstering the expectation of a high‑scoring encounter.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, three have ended with both sides scoring – most recently a 1‑1 draw on 26 July – underscoring the propensity for goals in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Jun 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 29 May 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 1 Aug 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy | Leagues Cup |
| 30 Jun 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-3 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Los Angeles Galaxy: R. Puig (Knee Injury), E. Thommy (Injury), M. Yamane (Hip Injury), E. Cerrillo (Inactive)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury), N. Tsakiris (Groin Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Los Angeles Galaxy won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes (full time).
When was Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Los Angeles Galaxy played San Jose Earthquakes on Thu 20 Aug · 03:30 BST in the MLS at Dignity Health Sports Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the clear statistical edge for a goal‑rich game, the safest betting angle is to back the total exceeding 2.5 goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
