Nashville SC vs Toronto FC: Nashville SC to win
Nashville SC sit on a 3.0 expected‑goals mark while Toronto FC manage just 0.8. The model rates Nashville’s win chance at 80.9%, making the result the most decisive edge.
Both clubs enter the clash with contrasting recent trajectories – Nashville have been prolific at home, whereas Toronto have struggled to find the net on the road. The fixture pits Nashville’s firepower against a Toronto side that has conceded heavily away from home.
Jonesy's Verdict
With a 3.0 vs 0.8 xG gap and an 80.9% win probability from the model, Nashville are heavily favoured to secure all three points.
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With Nashville SC averaging 3.0 expected goals and Toronto FC averaging 0.8, the model gives a 52.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Nashville SC 3.0 + Toronto FC 0.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 72.7% chance against 27.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Nashville SC at 80.9%, the draw at 11.8%, and Toronto FC at 6.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 10.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Nashville SC
Nashville’s last five league outings read WDLDW, highlighted by a 4‑0 home win over FC Cincinnati and a 3‑0 home victory against Chicago Fire, showing their ability to dominate opponents. The lone loss, 1‑2 away at Toronto, and the intervening draws demonstrate occasional slip‑ups, but the two recent wins reinforce a high‑scoring trend that supports a win pick.
Toronto FC
Toronto’s five-game run of DDWLL includes a 2‑1 home win over Nashville but is bookended by heavy defeats – 0‑3 away at Orlando City and 1‑3 away at St. Louis City – exposing defensive lapses. The earlier 4‑4 home draw with Chicago Fire underscores an irregular attack, meaning the recent form points to a low probability of overturning Nashville’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Nashville have triumphed four times (1‑0 in July 2025, 2‑1 in May 2025, 2‑1 in June 2024, 2‑0 in May 2024) and lost once (2‑1 to Toronto in September 2026), a record that strongly backs the win prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 24 May 2025 | Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Jun 2024 | Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 16 May 2024 | Nashville SC 2-0 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Nashville SC: W. Madrigal (Lower-Body Injury), C. Applewhite (Lower-Body Injury), P. Yazbek (Muscle Injury), C. Espinoza (Lower-Body Injury)
Toronto FC: D. Mihailovic (Muscle Injury), N. Palacio (Lower-Body Injury), L. Stefanovic (Foot Injury), J. Osorio (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?
Nashville SC won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Nashville SC to win.
What was the final score of Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?
Nashville SC 2-0 Toronto FC (full time).
When was Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?
Nashville SC played Toronto FC on Sun 27 Sep · 01:30 BST in the MLS at Geodis Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of Nashville’s superior expected goals and Toronto’s defensive frailties drives the model’s 80.9% probability of a Nashville victory, leaving little doubt about the likely outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
