New England Revolution vs New York City FC: New England Revolution to win
New England's 1.9 expected goals dwarf NYCFC's 1.0, and the model gives the Revolution a 58.4% chance to win. The numbers point to a home‑side victory with both sides likely to find the net.
Both clubs enter the fixture with contrasting recent runs – the Revolution have slipped to two defeats in their last five, while NYCFC have collected three points from two wins in the same span. The clash pits New England's solid home defence against a New York side that has been scoring on the road but also conceding more than it scores.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 58.4% chance to a Revolution victory, driven by their superior home expected goals and tighter defensive record.
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With New England Revolution averaging 1.9 expected goals and New York City FC averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (New England Revolution 1.9 + New York City FC 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New England Revolution at 58.4%, the draw at 22.1%, and New York City FC at 19.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New England Revolution
New England's recent form reads D‑W‑D‑L‑L, highlighted by a 4‑1 demolition of Atlanta United at home and a 0‑2 loss to Houston Dynamo at home. The dominant win shows their attacking ceiling, while the recent defeats expose defensive frailties that could be exploited, reinforcing the need for a solid home performance to secure the win.
New York City FC
NYCFC have gone L‑W‑W‑D‑L, with a 3‑1 home victory over Chicago Fire and a 2‑1 away win at Columbus Crew. The back‑to‑back wins demonstrate an ability to score, yet the surrounding losses and draws indicate inconsistency that makes a clean away win less likely.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, New England have won once (2‑0 on 2025‑04‑19), lost three (2‑1, 0‑1, 2‑0) and drawn once (1‑1), a record that still favours the Revolution at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | New England Revolution 2-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Mar 2025 | New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Aug 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC | Leagues Cup |
| 25 May 2024 | New England Revolution 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Apr 2024 | New York City FC 2-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New England Revolution: I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), A. Farrell (Lower-Body Injury)
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), A. Martinez (Knee Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
New England Revolution and New York City FC drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was New England Revolution to win.
What was the final score of New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC (full time).
When was New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
New England Revolution played New York City FC on Sun 23 Aug · 21:30 BST in the MLS at Gillette Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With the Revolution’s home xG edge and NYCFC’s modest away threat, the model’s highest‑probability outcome is a New England win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
