New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC: Both teams to score - Yes
New England host Orlando in a clash where both sides average 1.8 expected goals and the model assigns a 69.7% chance of both teams finding the net.
The Revolution have tightened up defensively at home, conceding only 0.9 goals per game, while Orlando have been prolific away, scoring 1.8 but leaking 3.3. With both clubs coming off contrasting recent runs, the match promises an open contest.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 69.7% BTTS probability, driven by equal expected goals and Orlando’s leaky away defence, makes a goal on both sides the most probable outcome.
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With New England Revolution averaging 1.8 expected goals and Orlando City SC averaging 1.8, the model gives a 69.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 30.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.6 (New England Revolution 1.8 + Orlando City SC 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 69.7% chance against 30.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New England Revolution at 39.0%, the draw at 21.9%, and Orlando City SC at 39.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New England Revolution
New England’s recent form (D 1‑1 vs NYCFC, W 3‑1 vs Columbus, L 1‑2 vs LA Galaxy, W 2‑1 vs NYCFC, W 2‑1 vs Chicago) shows they can score three or more goals while also allowing a reply, as seen in the 3‑1 win and 2‑1 wins. This ability to both hit the net and concede supports a scenario where both sides find the back of the net.
Orlando City SC
Orlando’s form (W 2‑1 vs Real Salt Lake, D 3‑3 vs Minnesota, W 1‑0 vs San Diego, W 3‑2 vs Atlanta, W 3‑0 vs Toronto) includes a 3‑2 win and a 3‑3 draw, confirming they regularly score multiple goals but also concede. Their recent run of high‑scoring games underlines the likelihood of them scoring again while keeping the opposition’s chances alive.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, four have featured both sides scoring – 3‑4, 1‑2, 3‑3, and 1‑3 – indicating a strong historical trend for BTTS that aligns with the model’s projection.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | New England Revolution 3-4 Orlando City SC | US Open Cup |
| 19 Jul 2025 | New England Revolution 1-2 Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 10 May 2025 | Orlando City SC 3-3 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Orlando City SC 3-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Jul 2024 | New England Revolution 1-3 Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Harrison (Lower-Body Injury), A. Yusuf (Injury), J. Wynder (Inactive)
Orlando City SC: A. Marin (Thigh Injury), B. Ojeda (Foot Injury), N. Miller (Knee Injury), A. Gomez (Thigh Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
New England Revolution won 4-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
New England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SC (full time).
When was New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
New England Revolution played Orlando City SC on Sun 20 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Gillette Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the identical xG values, the defensive disparity – Revolution’s solid 0.9 GA at home versus Orlando’s porous 3.3 GA away – tilts the balance toward a match where both sides will likely breach the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
