New York City FC vs Nashville SC: New York City FC Draw No Bet
New York City FC boast a 2.3 xG home rating against Nashville's 1.1 away xG, and the model rates a combined win‑or‑draw chance for the home side at 83.1%. That statistical edge makes the draw‑no‑bet market the clearest pick.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent trajectories: NYCFC sit on a mixed WDLLD run, while Nashville have surged with three wins in a row after an early stumble. The game pits NYCFC's home firepower against a Nashville side that has tightened its defence on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a combined win‑or‑draw probability of 83.1% (64.2% win + 18.9% draw) for NYCFC, underpinned by superior expected goals and home form.
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With New York City FC averaging 2.3 expected goals and Nashville SC averaging 1.1, the model gives a 60.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (New York City FC 2.3 + Nashville SC 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York City FC at 64.2%, the draw at 18.9%, and Nashville SC at 16.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York City FC
NYCFC's recent five‑game run (WDLLD) includes a 3‑1 victory over Chicago Fire at home and a 2‑3 loss to Philadelphia Union at home, showing they can produce multiple goals but also leak at the back. The mixed form, highlighted by a win and two recent losses, suggests they are capable of scoring but may still be vulnerable, reinforcing the draw‑no‑bet safety net.
Nashville SC
Nashville's five‑game stretch (LDWWW) features a 4‑1 home thrashing of Inter Miami and a 1‑0 away win at New York Red Bulls, indicating a surge in confidence and defensive solidity. Their three straight wins, including a tight 1‑0 result, imply they can keep the scoreline close, which supports the draw‑no‑bet angle for NYCFC.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has won twice and drawn once, with the most recent 2026‑05‑24 clash ending 2‑1 to Nashville. The even split underscores the home side's advantage but also the likelihood of a tight game, aligning with the draw‑no‑bet premise.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Nashville SC 2-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Aug 2025 | New York City FC 2-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | Nashville SC 2-2 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 6 Oct 2024 | New York City FC 3-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Nashville SC 1-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), A. Martinez (Knee Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury)
Nashville SC: C. Applewhite (Lower-Body Injury), W. Madrigal (Lower-Body Injury), P. Yazbek (Muscle Injury), C. Espinoza (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
New York City FC and Nashville SC drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was New York City FC Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
New York City FC 0-0 Nashville SC (full time).
When was New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
New York City FC played Nashville SC on Sat 5 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Yankee Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With the home side's expected goals at 2.3 versus Nashville's 1.1, the model sees NYCFC as the clear favorite, but also acknowledges a respectable 18.9% draw chance, boosting the draw‑no‑bet appeal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
