New York City FC vs New England Revolution: Over 2.5 goals
NYCFC's 2.3 expected goals face New England's 1.4, and the model puts a 71.4% chance of more than 2.5 goals – the clearest edge in this fixture.
Both sides have been inconsistent in their last five league outings – NYCFC with two draws and three losses, and the Revolution bouncing back from two defeats to a win, a draw and another win – making recent form a key factor.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 71.4% chance of more than 2.5 goals, driven by the combined 3.7 expected goals from both sides.
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With New York City FC averaging 2.3 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.4, the model gives a 67.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.7 (New York City FC 2.3 + New England Revolution 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.4% chance against 28.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York City FC at 57.6%, the draw at 19.7%, and New England Revolution at 22.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York City FC
NYCFC's recent form DLLDD includes a 1‑1 draw against Toronto FC at home and a 2‑3 loss to Philadelphia Union at home, showing they can both score and concede. The two recent draws (1‑1 vs Toronto and 1‑1 vs New England) indicate a tendency toward low‑margin games, but the 2‑3 loss proves they can also produce multiple goals, supporting an over‑2.5 result.
New England Revolution
The Revolution's form LLWDW features a 3‑0 away win over DC United and a 3‑1 away win over Columbus Crew, demonstrating their ability to find the net in away fixtures. Their 1‑1 home draw with NYCFC also shows they can contribute goals, bolstering the case for more than 2.5 goals overall.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings there have been two 1‑1 draws (2026‑08‑23 and 2024‑08‑09), a 2‑0 Revolution win (2025‑04‑19), a 2‑1 NYCFC win (2025‑03‑15), and a 1‑0 NYCFC win (2024‑05‑25), indicating both teams can score and concede, aligning with the over‑goal prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2026 | New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Apr 2025 | New England Revolution 2-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Mar 2025 | New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Aug 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC | Leagues Cup |
| 25 May 2024 | New England Revolution 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), A. Martinez (Knee Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), B. Raines (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
New England Revolution won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
New York City FC 1-2 New England Revolution (full time).
When was New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
New York City FC played New England Revolution on Thu 10 Sep · 01:00 BST in the MLS at Yankee Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams averaging close to or above a goal per game and the model heavily favoring an over‑2.5 outcome, the goal line is the most compelling market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
