New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: New York City FC to win
New York City FC sit on a 2.0 expected‑goals mark at home while the Red Bulls are limited to 1.2 away. The model gives the home side a 55.9% chance of victory, the strongest edge of the batch.
Both clubs have struggled to convert chances lately, but the derby’s recent history and the home side’s superior scoring rate set the stage for a decisive clash in the Big Apple.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 55.9% win probability, driven by NYCFC’s higher expected goals and superior home defensive record, makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
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With New York City FC averaging 2.0 expected goals and New York Red Bulls averaging 1.2, the model gives a 60.4% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.6% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (New York City FC 2.0 + New York Red Bulls 1.2) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York City FC at 55.9%, the draw at 21.6%, and New York Red Bulls at 22.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York City FC
NYCFC’s recent five‑game run reads L 1‑2 vs FC Cincinnati, D 1‑1 vs New England Revolution, D 1‑1 vs Toronto FC, D 0‑0 vs Nashville SC, and L 1‑2 vs New England Revolution. Two narrow defeats (1‑2) and three draws indicate they are hard to beat but still concede goals, reinforcing the expectation of a tight game where the home side can edge a win.
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls have endured L 0‑1 vs Nashville SC, D 1‑1 vs Chicago Fire, L 1‑3 vs Philadelphia Union, D 0‑0 vs Seattle Sounders, and L 0‑2 vs Los Angeles FC. Three losses, including a heavy 1‑3 defeat, highlight defensive issues that make scoring against them likely, supporting the home win pick.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, NYCFC has won three times, drawn once, and lost once, with the most recent 1‑1 draw on 16 May 2026 confirming the competitive nature but still favoring the home side overall.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | New York Red Bulls 1-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Apr 2026 | New York Red Bulls 1-3 New York City FC | US Open Cup |
| 27 Sep 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 May 2025 | New York City FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Nov 2024 | New York City FC 0-2 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
Team News
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury), K. Parks (Injury)
New York Red Bulls: R. Donkor (Yellow Cards), A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), A. Mehmeti (Injury), R. Mosquera (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
New York City FC to win. The model’s 55.9% win probability, driven by NYCFC’s higher expected goals and superior home defensive record, makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
What does the model give New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives New York City FC a 55.9% chance, the draw 21.6%, and New York Red Bulls 22.5% to win.
When is New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
New York City FC play New York Red Bulls on Sat 19 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Yankee Stadium.
Are there any injury concerns for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury), K. Parks (Injury). New York Red Bulls: R. Donkor (Yellow Cards), A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), A. Mehmeti (Injury), R. Mosquera (Inactive). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →All signs point to the home team converting their edge into three points, making a straight win the logical pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
