New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire: Both teams to score – Yes
Red Bulls and Chicago Fire both sit on a 1.8 expected‑goals mark, and the model rates a goal from each side at nearly 70 %.
Both clubs enter the match with identical scoring averages, but their defensive numbers diverge – New York concedes 2.0 per game at home while Chicago allows just 1.6 on the road. That contrast sets up a classic clash of attack versus defence.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s BTTS probability of 69.7 % makes a goal from each side the most likely outcome.
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With New York Red Bulls averaging 1.8 expected goals and Chicago Fire averaging 1.8, the model gives a 69.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 30.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.6 (New York Red Bulls 1.8 + Chicago Fire 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 69.7% chance against 30.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York Red Bulls at 39.0%, the draw at 21.9%, and Chicago Fire at 39.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York Red Bulls
New York’s last five league results include a 3‑2 home win over Orlando City SC, demonstrating they can breach a defence while still conceding, and a 0‑2 home loss to Charlotte, showing vulnerability at the back. Those outcomes mean the Red Bulls are capable of both scoring and leaking goals, reinforcing the BTTS expectation.
Chicago Fire
Chicago’s recent run features a 2‑1 home win over Charlotte and a 2‑1 home win over Portland Timbers, both tight games where the Fire scored and also allowed a goal. This pattern of scoring and conceding in close matches supports the likelihood of both sides finding the net.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the scorelines have been 3‑1, 1‑0, 2‑1, 2‑1 and 0‑0, with three matches featuring both teams scoring – exactly the trend our model expects.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Chicago Fire 1-3 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Chicago Fire 1-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Apr 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Chicago Fire 2-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Apr 2024 | New York Red Bulls 0-0 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive), S. Oregel (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
New York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago Fire (full time).
When was New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
New York Red Bulls played Chicago Fire on Sun 23 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both sides averaging 1.8 xG and the model assigning a 69.7 % chance to both teams finding the net, the BTTS market stands out as the clearest edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
