New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC: New York Red Bulls to win
The Red Bulls boast a 1.8 xG scoring rate at home while Nashville concede just 0.6 xG on the road, giving New York a clear edge. Our model rates a Red Bulls win at 53.7 % – the strongest single‑market probability.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs: New York has been erratic, alternating wins and defeats, whereas Nashville has ridden a three‑match winning streak before a slip‑up. The clash pits a high‑scoring home side against a defensively disciplined away outfit.
Jonesy's Verdict
The Red Bulls’ superior home scoring rate and the model’s 53.7 % win probability make a victory the most likely outcome.
Show the maths
With New York Red Bulls averaging 1.8 expected goals and Nashville SC averaging 1.1, the model gives a 55.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 44.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.9 (New York Red Bulls 1.8 + Nashville SC 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York Red Bulls at 53.7%, the draw at 23.1%, and Nashville SC at 23.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York Red Bulls
New York’s recent form (DWLLW) includes a 2‑1 away win over Sporting Kansas City and a 3‑2 home win against Orlando City SC, showing they can score multiple goals on the road and at home. Those two victories, combined with a 1‑1 home draw, indicate the Bulls can find the net against Nashville’s tight defence, supporting a win pick.
Nashville SC
Nashville’s form (WWWLD) features a 2‑1 home win over New York City FC and a 0‑1 away loss to Orlando City SC. While they have scored in three of their last five matches, the recent defeat highlights a potential dip in momentum, suggesting they may struggle to overturn New York’s home advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Nashville won 2‑1 in May 2025, but New York responded with a 2‑0 win in March 2025 and a 0‑1 win in October 2023, indicating the home side often prevails, which aligns with the Red Bulls win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2025 | Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2 Mar 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-0 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Jun 2024 | New York Red Bulls 0-0 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Nashville SC 0-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Nashville SC 0-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Nashville SC: A. Qasem (Injury), C. Espinoza (Lower-Body Injury), A. Muyl (Lower-Body Injury), J. Willis (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?
Nashville SC won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was New York Red Bulls to win.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?
New York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SC (full time).
When was New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?
New York Red Bulls played Nashville SC on Thu 20 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the xG advantage, the home‑field edge, and the model’s clear win probability, backing the Red Bulls to secure three points is the logical choice.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
