New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: Both teams to score - Yes
New York Red Bulls host Philadelphia Union in a clash where the Union hold a 4‑win edge in recent meetings and both sides boast high xG, setting the stage for plenty of goals.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – the Red Bulls have slipped to a LWLLD sequence, while the Union sit on a WWWDD stretch – making the upcoming fixture a test of consistency versus form.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 63.5% BTTS probability, backed by the Red Bulls’ 1.5 home xG and the Union’s 1.7 away xG, makes a double‑goal outcome the most likely scenario.
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With New York Red Bulls averaging 1.5 expected goals and Philadelphia Union averaging 1.7, the model gives a 63.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (New York Red Bulls 1.5 + Philadelphia Union 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York Red Bulls at 34.1%, the draw at 23.3%, and Philadelphia Union at 42.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls’ last five league results read L 0‑2 vs Charlotte (H), W 3‑2 vs Orlando City SC (H), L 1‑2 vs Atlanta United FC (A), L 0‑1 vs Nashville SC (H) and D 1‑1 vs Chicago Fire (H). Conceding in four of those five matches and scoring three times overall highlights defensive frailties and a modest attack, reinforcing the expectation that they will likely be scored against.
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia’s recent five games include W 1‑0 vs Seattle Sounders (H), W 3‑2 vs Atlanta United FC (H), W 3‑2 vs New York City FC (A), D 2‑2 vs Inter Miami (H) and D 1‑1 vs Austin (A). Scoring in four of those matches while conceding in three shows a potent offense that still leaves room for the opposition to reply, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings the Union have won four times, most recently 3‑1 at New York on 22 July 2026, indicating a clear historical edge that aligns with the BTTS outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Aug 2025 | New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Aug 2025 | Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls | US Open Cup |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Philadelphia Union 2-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 31 Aug 2024 | New York Red Bulls 0-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Philadelphia Union: J. Lukic (Yellow Cards), G. Martinez (Injury), P. Ndinga (Hamstring Injury), S. Korzeniowski (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union (full time).
When was New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
New York Red Bulls played Philadelphia Union on Sun 30 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With goal chances on both sides and the Union’s recent dominance in head‑to‑head, the most logical read points to both teams finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
