New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: New York Red Bulls to win
New York Red Bulls boast a 1.5 expected‑goals tally at home while St. Louis City sit at 1.3 away. The model backs the home side at 42 % to win, the highest single‑outcome probability.
Both clubs entered the weekend on opposite trajectories: the Red Bulls have turned a slump into back‑to‑back 1‑0 victories, whereas St. Louis City have ridden a three‑game winning streak but did so largely on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 42 % win probability to the Red Bulls, the highest single‑outcome chance, backed by superior home xG and a recent string of 1‑0 wins.
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With New York Red Bulls averaging 1.5 expected goals and St. Louis City averaging 1.3, the model gives a 56.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (New York Red Bulls 1.5 + St. Louis City 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York Red Bulls at 42.0%, the draw at 25.1%, and St. Louis City at 32.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York Red Bulls
New York’s five‑game stretch includes a 1‑3 loss to Philadelphia, a goalless draw with Seattle, a 0‑2 defeat at LAFC, followed by consecutive 1‑0 victories over Columbus and NYCFC. Scoring in three of those five matches, the recent wins demonstrate a capacity to grind out narrow results, which underpins confidence in a home win.
St. Louis City
St. Louis City have recorded D 3‑3 vs Dallas, W 3‑1 vs Vancouver, D 2‑2 vs Portland, W 4‑2 vs Minnesota, and W 3‑1 vs Toronto. Scoring in every game, their attack remains potent, but conceding 1.5 goals per match away suggests they can be shut out by a disciplined Red Bulls side.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, New York won 3‑1 in January 2026, lost 0‑1 in 2025, and drew 2‑2 in early 2024, indicating a slight edge for the home side in recent head‑to‑head contests.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | New York Red Bulls 3-1 St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 29 Jan 2025 | New York Red Bulls 0-1 St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 10 Feb 2024 | St. Louis City 2-2 New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
New York Red Bulls: M. Dos Santos (International duty), J. Che (Ankle Injury), A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), J. Marshall-Rutty (Injury)
St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury), K. Hiebert (Hip Injury), P. Ault (Ankle Injury), B. McSorley (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
St. Louis City won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was New York Red Bulls to win.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
New York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis City (full time).
When was New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
New York Red Bulls played St. Louis City on Thu 1 Oct · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of New York’s recent clean‑sheet wins and St. Louis’s porous away defence tilts the odds toward a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
