Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: CF Montreal to win
Philadelphia Union sit on a 1.2 xG average while CF Montreal edge them with 1.4 xG, and the model assigns Montreal a 41.6% chance to win versus Union’s 32.2%. The numbers point to a tight contest with a slight tilt toward the visitors.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent trajectories: Union have been unbeaten in five straight league games, while Montreal have slipped to a single win in their last five outings. The disparity in form sets up a clash between Union’s consistency and Montreal’s higher expected goal output.
Jonesy's Verdict
Montreal’s higher expected‑goals figure of 1.4 versus Union’s 1.2, combined with the model’s 41.6% win probability, makes them the slight favorites.
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With Philadelphia Union averaging 1.2 expected goals and CF Montreal averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Philadelphia Union 1.2 + CF Montreal 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Philadelphia Union at 32.2%, the draw at 26.2%, and CF Montreal at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Philadelphia Union
Union’s five‑game run reads WWDDW, highlighted by a 3‑2 home win over Atlanta United and a 3‑2 away win at New York City FC, followed by a 2‑2 home draw with Inter Miami. Staying unbeaten across five matches shows they can both score and avoid defeat, reinforcing why the model still credits Union with a respectable win chance despite Montreal’s edge.
CF Montreal
Montreal’s recent form is DDWDL, featuring a 2‑1 away victory at Columbus Crew and a heavy 1‑7 away loss to Inter Miami. The win at Columbus underlines their ability to convert chances on the road, while the defensive fragility reflected in the 7‑goal concession hints at why their win probability, though higher than Union’s, remains modest.
Head-to-Head
Union dominate the recent head‑to‑head with four wins in the last five meetings, including a 2‑1 victory on 11 April 2026, but the model’s probabilities favor Montreal, indicating the current season’s xG trends outweigh the historical record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | CF Montreal 1-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Philadelphia Union 2-4 CF Montreal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Philadelphia Union 2-1 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 3 May 2025 | CF Montreal 1-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Feb 2025 | CF Montreal 0-1 Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Philadelphia Union: A. Bedoya (Knee Injury), J. Lukic (Yellow Cards), G. Martinez (Injury), P. Ndinga (Hamstring Injury)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), B. Ceballos (Yellow Cards), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury), E. Morales (Toe Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Philadelphia Union won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was CF Montreal to win.
What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal (full time).
When was Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Philadelphia Union played CF Montreal on Sun 6 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Subaru Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The model’s win probabilities reflect the slight edge Montreal holds in expected scoring, even though Union’s form looks stronger on paper. That edge translates into the clearest betting signal from the data.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
