Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution: Real Salt Lake to win
Real Salt Lake's 1.8 expected goals meet New England's 1.5, but a 44.9% win probability versus 32.3% for the visitors tilts the odds toward the home side.
Both clubs come in on opposite form trends: the Revolution have surged with four wins in five, while Real Salt Lake have lost four of their last five league outings.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 44.9% chance of a Real Salt Lake victory, outpacing the Revolution's 32.3% and reflecting their higher expected goal tally.
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With Real Salt Lake averaging 1.8 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.5, the model gives a 64.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 35.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Real Salt Lake 1.8 + New England Revolution 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Real Salt Lake at 44.9%, the draw at 22.8%, and New England Revolution at 32.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake's recent run reads L‑0‑1 vs Colorado Rapids (A), D‑2‑2 vs LAFC (H), L‑1‑2 vs Houston Dynamo (A), L‑0‑2 vs NYCFC (H) and L‑0‑3 vs Vancouver Whitecaps (H). Four defeats in five matches underscore a struggling defence, yet the 1‑1 draw against LAFC shows they can still find the net, supporting a win‑or‑draw outlook rather than a clean sheet, which aligns with a plain win pick.
New England Revolution
New England's last five show W‑3‑1 at Columbus (A), L‑1‑2 at LA Galaxy (A), W‑2‑1 at NYCFC (A), W‑2‑1 at Chicago Fire (A) and W‑4‑2 at Orlando City (H). Four wins out of five indicate strong attacking form, but the lone loss and defensive concession of 1.5 per away game suggest they are not airtight, keeping Real Salt Lake's win probability viable.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 1 Sept 2024, Real Salt Lake beat New England 2‑0, reinforcing the home side's recent edge in the head‑to‑head record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2024 | Real Salt Lake 2-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Mar 2022 | New England Revolution 2-3 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Sep 2019 | New England Revolution 0-0 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Oct 2018 | Real Salt Lake 4-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 13 May 2017 | New England Revolution 4-0 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Real Salt Lake: J. J. Arias (Injury), Z. Booth (Hamstring Injury), G. Dillon (Foot Injury), L. Engel (Hamstring Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Harrison (Lower-Body Injury), L. Langoni (Thigh Injury), A. Yusuf (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?
Real Salt Lake won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Real Salt Lake to win.
What was the final score of Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?
Real Salt Lake 3-0 New England Revolution (full time).
When was Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?
Real Salt Lake played New England Revolution on Sun 27 Sep · 02:30 BST in the MLS at America First Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With a clear edge in both expected goals and win probability, the home side is the logical choice to clinch three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
