Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC: Both teams to score - Yes
Real Salt Lake’s 2.2 expected goals versus NYCFC’s 1.0 set up a high‑scoring clash, and the model puts the BTTS probability at 56.2%. Both sides have shown recent defensive frailties, making a goal for each side the most likely outcome.
Both teams come in with contrasting recent form – Real Salt Lake have struggled to convert, while NYCFC have been conceding at the back. The fixture pits a home side that averages 2.2 goals per game against a visitor that still finds the net despite a modest 1.0 expected goal tally.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s BTTS probability of 56.2% reflects the teams’ recent scoring and conceding patterns, making a goal for each side the most probable outcome.
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With Real Salt Lake averaging 2.2 expected goals and New York City FC averaging 1.0, the model gives a 56.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Real Salt Lake 2.2 + New York City FC 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Real Salt Lake at 64.6%, the draw at 19.4%, and New York City FC at 16.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake’s recent five-game stretch reads DLLLD, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw with Los Angeles FC at home and a 1‑1 draw with Minnesota United away. Those games show they can find the net while also leaking goals, indicating they are likely to score against NYCFC. The three defeats in the sequence also suggest defensive vulnerability, supporting a BTTS outcome.
New York City FC
NYCFC’s form (LLDDD) includes a 0‑0 home draw with Nashville and a 1‑1 away draw with Toronto, both featuring both sides scoring or holding. The three consecutive draws after two losses demonstrate their knack for finding a goal while not keeping clean sheets, reinforcing the expectation of a goal from NYCFC in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings have produced two 2‑2 draws and a 0‑0 stalemate, showing a history of both sides scoring; the 6‑0 loss in 2022 is an outlier, and the recent high‑scoring draws back the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2025 | Real Salt Lake 2-2 New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Real Salt Lake 2-2 New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 11 Jun 2023 | Real Salt Lake 0-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Apr 2022 | New York City FC 6-0 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 4 Aug 2019 | Real Salt Lake 3-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Real Salt Lake: Z. Booth (Hamstring Injury), G. Dillon (Foot Injury), E. Eneli (Knee Injury), J. Glad (Groin Injury)
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury), K. Parks (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
New York City FC won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
Real Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FC (full time).
When was Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
Real Salt Lake played New York City FC on Sun 13 Sep · 02:30 BST in the MLS at America First Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With a combined expected goal total of 3.2 and a model BTTS probability of 56.2%, the logical reading is that each side will likely breach the net at least once.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
