Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. Pauli Stadion an der Hafenstrasse

Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli: Both teams to score - Yes

Rot‑Weiß Essen hold a slim edge with 1.35 xG against St. Pauli’s 0.7 xG, while the model rates a 37.3 % chance both sides will find the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Lost

Lean · BTTS likelihood

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Won

62.7% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won

66.3% model probability

The DFB‑Pokal showdown pits a fourth‑tier side against a Bundesliga struggler, but the numbers suggest the cup’s knockout edge could spark goals from both ends.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Both teams to score - Yes Lost Slight lean Lean · BTTS likelihood

The model assigns a 37.3 % probability to both sides scoring, outpacing the 28.2 % draw chance and aligning with Essen’s superior xG and St. Pauli’s defensive frailties.

Show the maths

Essen’s 1.35 xG translates to a strong chance of at least one goal, while St. Pauli’s 0.7 xG still indicates they can score on occasion. The model combines these offensive expectations with St. Pauli’s 1.7 goals‑against average away, yielding a 37.3 % BTTS probability that sits well above the draw likelihood of 28.2 % and the under‑2.5 goal probability of 66.3 %. This gap makes the BTTS pick the most one‑sided probability in the data set.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Won 62.7% model probability

With Rot-Weiß Essen averaging 1.35 expected goals and FC St. Pauli averaging 0.7, the model gives a 62.7% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 37.3% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Rot-Weiß Essen 1.35, FC St. Pauli 0.7) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 37.3% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 62.7% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won 66.3% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Rot-Weiß Essen 1.35 + FC St. Pauli 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 66.3% chance against 33.7% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Rot-Weiß Essen 1.35 + FC St. Pauli 0.7 = 2.0 combined): 33.7% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 66.3% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rot-Weiß Essen at 52.4%, the draw at 28.2%, and FC St. Pauli at 19.4% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 17.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Rot-Weiß Essen expected goals

1.35

FC St. Pauli expected goals

0.7

Model BTTS probability

62.7%

Most likely scorelines

11-0

17.4%

20-0

12.9%

31-1

12.2%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli?

Rot-Weiß Essen won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli?

Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. Pauli (full time).

When was Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC St. Pauli?

Rot-Weiß Essen played FC St. Pauli on Sun 23 Aug · 17:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse.

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With both teams capable of scoring and the under‑2.5 goal probability sitting at 66.3 %, the BTTS market offers the clearest edge from the model.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups