San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes: Both teams to score - Yes
San Diego enter this clash with a 2.5‑goal expected output, while San Jose sit at 1.8. The model rates a 76.5% chance both sides will find the net.
Both clubs come into the fixture on opposite trajectories – San Diego have won three of their last five, whereas San Jose have failed to win in five straight. The contrast in recent form sets up a clear test of San Diego’s attacking edge against a struggling Earthquakes side.
Jonesy's Verdict
The high BTTS probability, combined with San Diego’s 2.5 xG and San Jose’s 1.8 xG, makes a goal from each side the most likely outcome.
Show the maths
With San Diego averaging 2.5 expected goals and San Jose Earthquakes averaging 1.8, the model gives a 76.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 23.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 4.3 (San Diego 2.5 + San Jose Earthquakes 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.1% chance against 19.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Diego at 53.3%, the draw at 18.9%, and San Jose Earthquakes at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
San Diego
San Diego’s recent run includes a 3‑0 win over Colorado Rapids at home and a 3‑1 victory against LA Galaxy, both showing their ability to score multiple goals. The earlier 1‑3 loss to Portland Timbers demonstrates they can also concede, but the two dominant home wins underline a strong attacking form that supports a BTTS outcome.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose have not won in five games, highlighted by a 0‑1 loss at LA Galaxy and a 0‑0 draw with Houston Dynamo away. The 2‑4 defeat at FC Cincinnati shows they can score, though they also concede heavily, indicating vulnerability that makes conceding to San Diego plausible while still finding a goal themselves.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings, each side has recorded two wins – most recently San Jose’s 3‑0 win on 5 Apr 2026 and San Diego’s 2‑0 win on 24 Jan 2026 – underscoring that both teams are capable of scoring against each other, which aligns with the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Jan 2026 | San Diego 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Sep 2025 | San Diego 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Aug 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
San Diego: M. Ingvartsen (Injury), J. Tverskov (Red Card), M. Alstrup (Lower-Body Injury), K. Sargeant (Lower-Body Injury)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury), D. Johnson (Lower-Body Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
San Jose Earthquakes won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes (full time).
When was San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
San Diego played San Jose Earthquakes on Thu 10 Sep · 03:30 BST in the MLS at Snapdragon Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams averaging more than one goal per match and the model assigning a 76.5% probability to both sides scoring, the BTTS market emerges as the strongest single read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
