San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: San Jose Earthquakes to win
San Jose's 1.7 expected goals edges Houston's 1.4, and the model backs the home side at 44.7% to win. Both teams have been low‑scoring lately, but the Earthquakes' slight edge makes them the clear pick.
Both clubs come into the clash after uneven spells – San Jose have slipped to three straight defeats before two draws, while Houston have rebounded with two wins but then stumbled to a loss and two draws. The fixture pits the Earthquakes' home scoring average against the Dynamo's away numbers, setting up a tight but decisive encounter.
Jonesy's Verdict
The Earthquakes' 1.7 expected goals at home versus Houston's 1.4 away, combined with a 44.7% model win probability, make a home win the most likely outcome.
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With San Jose Earthquakes averaging 1.7 expected goals and Houston Dynamo averaging 1.4, the model gives a 61.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 38.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (San Jose Earthquakes 1.7 + Houston Dynamo 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Jose Earthquakes at 44.7%, the draw at 23.6%, and Houston Dynamo at 31.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose's last five league results read LLLDD, including a 1‑3 loss to St. Louis City at home and a 0‑1 defeat away at LA Galaxy. The three consecutive defeats highlight a struggling attack, yet the two recent draws (0‑0 vs Houston and 1‑1 vs Austin) show they can hold the line, suggesting they are more likely to scrape a win than risk a loss.
Houston Dynamo
Houston’s form of WWLDD features back‑to‑back 1‑0 victories over LA Galaxy at home and Vancouver away, followed by a 1‑2 loss at St. Louis City. The recent draws (0‑0 vs San Jose at home and 0‑0 vs Charlotte away) indicate a tightening defence, but the two wins demonstrate they can still produce a goal, supporting a competitive but not dominant performance.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Houston have two wins (0‑1 in 2024‑07‑18 and 2‑1 in 2024‑03‑31), San Jose have one win (2‑1 in 2025‑08‑24), and there have been two draws, meaning the Dynamo hold a slight historical edge but the Earthquakes' home advantage narrows the gap.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | Houston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Houston Dynamo 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 25 May 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 3-3 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Jul 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Houston Dynamo 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury), D. Johnson (Lower-Body Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Houston Dynamo: J. Maurer (Concussion), M. Saracchi (Lower-Body Injury), Lucas Halter (Yellow Cards), Felipe Andrade (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
San Jose Earthquakes won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo (full time).
When was San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
San Jose Earthquakes played Houston Dynamo on Sun 13 Sep · 03:30 BST in the MLS at PayPal Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the marginal xG superiority at home and the model’s clear probability gap, the Earthquakes are positioned to earn three points despite the Dynamo’s recent wins.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
