San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers: Over 2.5 goals
San Jose's 1.7 expected goals meet Portland's 1.3, creating a high‑scoring outlook. The model backs an Over 2.5‑goal outcome at 57.7% probability.
Both clubs enter the match with contrasting recent runs – the Earthquakes have steadied after a flurry of draws, while the Timbers have struggled to find the net away from home. The clash pits a modest home attack against a porous Timbers defence, setting the stage for plenty of chances.
Jonesy's Verdict
With a 57.7% model probability and both sides averaging over a goal per game, the match is primed to exceed 2.5 goals.
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With San Jose Earthquakes averaging 1.7 expected goals and Portland Timbers averaging 1.3, the model gives a 59.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (San Jose Earthquakes 1.7 + Portland Timbers 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Jose Earthquakes at 46.8%, the draw at 23.8%, and Portland Timbers at 29.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose's recent five results read D‑D‑W‑W‑D, highlighted by a 3‑2 away win over San Diego and a 1‑0 home victory over Houston Dynamo. Those games show the Earthquakes can produce multiple goals and keep clean sheets, supporting a higher total goal count for this fixture.
Portland Timbers
Portland's last five outings are L‑W‑D‑L‑L, featuring a 5‑4 high‑scoring win over Minnesota United but also three defeats where they scored one or none, such as a 1‑2 loss at FC Dallas. The inconsistency, especially conceding heavily on the road, underlines the potential for a goal‑rich game.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, San Jose won four (3‑1 on 24 May 2026, 3‑2 on 11 Feb 2026, 1‑0 on 21 May 2025, 4‑1 on 4 May 2025) and the teams drew once (1‑1 on 14 June 2025), indicating the Earthquakes' dominance which often translates into multiple goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Portland Timbers 1-3 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 11 Feb 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 Portland Timbers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 14 Jun 2025 | Portland Timbers 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 21 May 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers | US Open Cup |
| 4 May 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 4-1 Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), D. Johnson (Lower-Body Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury)
Portland Timbers: A. Aravena (Hip Injury), B. Bye (Leg Injury), J. Caicedo (Thigh Injury), J. Mosquera (Foot Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers (full time).
When was San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes played Portland Timbers on Sun 27 Sep · 03:30 BST in the MLS at PayPal Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of a solid Earthquakes attack and a leaky Timbers defence points to more than two goals in the fixture, aligning with the model's strongest probability.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
