San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: San Jose Earthquakes to win
San Jose Earthquakes boast an expected‑goals rate of 1.9 versus St Louis City’s 0.9, and the model gives the home side a 60.8% chance to win. The clash pits a struggling Earthquakes side against a dominant visiting outfit that has won four of its last five games.
Both teams enter this fixture on opposite trajectories – the Earthquakes have dropped three of their last five league matches, while St Louis City have been unbeaten in five, recording four wins. The contrast in recent form sets up a test of San Jose’s home‑field edge against a side that has thrived on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
The Earthquakes’ 1.9 expected goals at home versus St Louis City’s 0.9 away, combined with a 60.8% model win probability, makes a home win the most likely outcome.
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With San Jose Earthquakes averaging 1.9 expected goals and St. Louis City averaging 0.9, the model gives a 50.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (San Jose Earthquakes 1.9 + St. Louis City 0.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.0% chance against 47.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Jose Earthquakes at 60.8%, the draw at 21.9%, and St. Louis City at 17.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose’s recent five‑game stretch reads L‑W‑L‑D‑L, including a 2‑3 loss to FC Dallas at home and a 3‑1 away win over Portland Timbers. The team also fell 2‑4 to FC Cincinnati away. The lone win shows they can produce goals, but three defeats highlight inconsistency, underscoring why a home win remains the most probable single result.
St. Louis City
St Louis City are unbeaten in five, with four wins: 3‑0 against Austin at home, 3‑2 versus Sporting Kansas City at home, and a 3‑1 away victory over Los Angeles Galaxy, before a 1‑0 home win over Colorado Rapids and a 1‑1 home draw with Real Salt Lake. This run demonstrates strong attacking form, yet their low away expected‑goals figure tempers expectations for scoring in San Jose.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, San Jose have won twice (3‑2 on 26 Apr 2026 and 2‑1 on 15 Feb 2025) and lost three times, indicating a slight edge for the Earthquakes but a balanced rivalry overall.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | St. Louis City 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Sep 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | St. Louis City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Feb 2025 | St. Louis City 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Sep 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
San Jose Earthquakes: N. Adimabua (Lower-Body Injury), E. Edwards (Lower-Body Injury), J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza (Injury), D. Jones (Achilles Tendon Injury)
St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury), B. McSorley (Ankle Injury), A. Matan (Inactive), C. Wallem (Concussion)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
St. Louis City won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City (full time).
When was San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
San Jose Earthquakes played St. Louis City on Sun 16 Aug · 03:30 BST in the MLS at PayPal Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With a clear xG advantage and a model win probability of over 60%, the numbers point toward a home victory despite the visitors’ recent run.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
