Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls: Both teams to score - Yes
Seattle Sounders average 1.6 xG at home against New York Red Bulls' 1.4 away xG, while the model puts the match at 57.7% chance of over 2.5 goals. Both sides have a BTTS probability above 60%, making a both‑teams‑to‑score bet the clearest edge.
The Sounders have slipped to three straight defeats before salvaging two draws, while the Red Bulls have mixed results of one win, three losses and a draw in their last five. Both clubs are looking to reset their trajectories as the season heads into its final stretch.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 60.1% chance that both sides will score, backed by Seattle's 1.8 GA home average and New York's 2.3 GA away average.
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With Seattle Sounders averaging 1.6 expected goals and New York Red Bulls averaging 1.4, the model gives a 60.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Seattle Sounders 1.6 + New York Red Bulls 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Seattle Sounders at 42.3%, the draw at 24.2%, and New York Red Bulls at 33.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Seattle Sounders
Seattle’s recent five matches include a 1‑2 loss at Portland (A), a 0‑2 loss to Vancouver (H), a 1‑2 loss to Austin (H), a 1‑1 draw at Cincinnati (A) and a 2‑2 draw with Chicago (H). The three consecutive defeats followed by two draws show a defence that is leaking goals, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring.
New York Red Bulls
New York’s last five fixtures feature a 3‑2 win over Orlando (H), a 1‑2 loss at Atlanta (A), a 0‑1 loss to Nashville (H), a 1‑1 draw with Chicago (H) and a 1‑3 loss to Philadelphia (H). Four of those games saw the Red Bulls concede, and three involved them scoring, underscoring their propensity to both hit and concede goals.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Seattle beat New York 1‑0 in May 2023, while the 2019 meeting produced a 4‑2 Seattle win. The pattern of Seattle scoring and conceding in past meetings aligns with the BTTS outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 May 2023 | Seattle Sounders 1-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Sep 2019 | Seattle Sounders 4-2 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Jun 2018 | New York Red Bulls 2-1 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Mar 2017 | Seattle Sounders 3-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Jun 2016 | New York Red Bulls 2-0 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Seattle Sounders: P. Arriola (Calf Injury), J. Ferreira (Injury), X. Gnaulati (Injury), Y. Gomez Andrade (Muscle Injury)
New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), E. Lomdono (Injury), A. Mehmeti (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
Seattle Sounders and New York Red Bulls drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
Seattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red Bulls (full time).
When was Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
Seattle Sounders played New York Red Bulls on Sun 6 Sep · 01:30 BST in the MLS at Lumen Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both teams averaging more than a goal per match and the model signalling a clear over‑2.5 and BTTS likelihood, the safest read is that each side will find the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
