Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union to win
Sporting Kansas City average 1.3 xG at home faces a Union side that posts 2.1 xG on the road, and the model gives Philadelphia a 55.8% win chance.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Sporting have scraped a single win from their last five league outings, while Union have improved to four wins and a draw, highlighting a clear momentum gap.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 55.8% probability to a Union victory, reflecting their superior xG and recent goal output.
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With Sporting Kansas City averaging 1.3 expected goals and Philadelphia Union averaging 2.1, the model gives a 63.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Sporting Kansas City 1.3 + Philadelphia Union 2.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sporting Kansas City at 23.3%, the draw at 20.9%, and Philadelphia Union at 55.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sporting Kansas City
Sporting’s recent run reads D‑L‑L‑L‑W. They drew 1‑1 with St. Louis City at home, then fell 1‑2 to Atlanta United away and 0‑3 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home. Those three defeats, especially the 0‑3 loss, show a defense that can be breached heavily, which weakens their chances of holding Union’s attack at bay.
Philadelphia Union
Union’s form is D‑W‑W‑W‑W. After a 1‑1 draw away at Austin, they beat New York Red Bulls 3‑1 away, then secured 2‑0 and 5‑0 victories at home over CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati, and capped the run with another 5‑0 win away at San Diego. Scoring five goals in two consecutive matches demonstrates an attack that can easily outpace Kansas City’s defensive record.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have produced two draws (1‑1 and 0‑0) and each side has won twice – Union 3‑1 in 2020 and 2‑0 in 2018, Sporting 2‑0 in 2019 – a balanced history that does not outweigh Union’s current form advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2024 | Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Philadelphia Union 0-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Philadelphia Union 3-1 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Mar 2019 | Sporting Kansas City 2-0 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Sep 2018 | Philadelphia Union 2-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong (Calf Injury), O. Blorian (Chest Injury), J. Davis (Injury), I. James (Knee Injury)
Philadelphia Union: P. Ndinga (Hamstring Injury), A. Anello (Muscle Injury), A. Bedoya (Knee Injury), J. Lukic (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union won 4-3. Our pre-match pick was Philadelphia Union to win.
What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Sporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia Union (full time).
When was Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Sporting Kansas City played Philadelphia Union on Sun 20 Sep · 01:30 BST in the MLS at Children's Mercy Park.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →The combination of Union’s sharp scoring run and Kansas City’s defensive frailties points to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
