SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 VfL Bochum Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum: Both teams to score - Yes

Greuther Fürth host Bochum in the DFB‑Pokal with both sides posting identical expected‑goals of 1.35. The model’s probabilities are perfectly balanced, but the BTTS outlook tilts slightly in favour of both teams finding the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · BTTS edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The cup tie pits two Bundesliga sides that have shown comparable attacking output this season, each averaging 1.35 expected goals per match. With neither side holding a clear advantage on paper, the contest will likely be decided by fine margins and defensive solidity.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Solid lean Solid · BTTS edge

The model assigns a 54.9% chance to both sides scoring, making the BTTS – Yes market the clearest one‑sided probability.

Show the maths

Both teams have an identical expected‑goals value of 1.35, which the model translates into equal win odds of 37.1% each and a 25.8% draw probability. Adding the two xG figures gives an expected total of 2.70 goals, which pushes the over‑2.5 goal probability just above 50%. However, the BTTS probability of 54.9% exceeds the over‑2.5 figure, indicating the model expects each side to score even if the total stays close to two. This combination of balanced win odds and a higher BTTS likelihood makes the Both teams to score – Yes pick the most statistically supported.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With SpVgg Greuther Fürth averaging 1.35 expected goals and VfL Bochum averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35, VfL Bochum 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 + VfL Bochum 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 + VfL Bochum 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and VfL Bochum at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals

1.35

VfL Bochum expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the five most recent meetings, Bochum have won every game (2‑1, 0‑3, 2‑1, 0‑1, 1‑2), showing a clear historical dominance that aligns with the model’s expectation of both sides scoring.

Date	Result	Competition
26 Apr 2026	VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth	2. Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025	SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-3 VfL Bochum	2. Bundesliga
5 Mar 2022	Vfl Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth	Bundesliga
16 Oct 2021	SpVgg Greuther Furth 0-1 Vfl Bochum	Bundesliga
6 Mar 2021	SpVgg Greuther Furth 1-2 Vfl Bochum	2. Bundesliga

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?

VfL Bochum won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 VfL Bochum (full time).

When was SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Bochum?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth played VfL Bochum on Sun 23 Aug · 12:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.

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Given the balanced xG and the model’s slight edge for both sides scoring, the most defensible read is that both teams will find the net.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups