St. Louis City vs FC Dallas: Both teams to score – Yes
St. Louis City average 1.8 xG at home while FC Dallas sit at 1.7 xG away. Both sides combine for a 68.2% chance that both will find the net.
The match pits MLS newcomers St. Louis City against a travelling FC Dallas side that has shown a volatile defensive record on the road. Both clubs have been involved in tight, often high‑scoring encounters this season, making the goal‑scoring outlook the central story.
Jonesy's Verdict
Both sides have high expected goal figures and recent matches that show they can find the net, supporting a strong BTTS outcome.
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With St. Louis City averaging 1.8 expected goals and FC Dallas averaging 1.7, the model gives a 68.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (St. Louis City 1.8 + FC Dallas 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St. Louis City at 40.9%, the draw at 22.3%, and FC Dallas at 36.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
St. Louis City
St. Louis City’s last five league results read W‑D‑W‑D‑W, including a 1‑0 win over Colorado Rapids and a 3‑1 victory at San Jose Earthquakes. Those wins, especially the three‑goal performance away, demonstrate their ability to create and convert chances, reinforcing the expectation they will score against Dallas.
FC Dallas
FC Dallas have posted a L‑D‑W‑W‑L run, highlighted by a 4‑3 win over Real Salt Lake and a 2‑1 triumph at Austin. Both high‑scoring games show Dallas can breach defenses even on the road, supporting the view they will also find the net in St. Louis.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have drawn 1‑1 twice and produced a 3‑0 win for Dallas and a 2‑1 win for City, yielding three matches with both sides scoring. This recent history aligns with the BTTS expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | FC Dallas 1-1 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Sep 2025 | St. Louis City 1-1 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Jul 2025 | FC Dallas 3-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Jul 2024 | St. Louis City 2-1 FC Dallas | Leagues Cup |
| 16 Jun 2024 | FC Dallas 2-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury), C. Durkin (Yellow Cards), K. Hiebert (Hip Injury), B. McSorley (Ankle Injury)
FC Dallas: Daniel (Hamstring Injury), Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury), A. A. Julio Santos (Injury), P. Delgado (Leg Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St. Louis City vs FC Dallas?
St. Louis City and FC Dallas drew 3-3. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs FC Dallas?
St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas (full time).
When was St. Louis City vs FC Dallas?
St. Louis City played FC Dallas on Mon 31 Aug · 00:00 BST in the MLS at CITYPARK.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With the model assigning a 68.2% probability to both teams scoring, the statistical case for a BTTS bet is clear.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
