St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo: St. Louis City to win
St. Louis City head into the match with a 1.8 expected‑goals rate and a 40.9% win probability, while Houston Dynamo sit at 1.7 xG and a 36.8% chance to take all three points. Both sides have been scoring regularly, but the home side’s slightly better odds make a win the logical read.
The Cardinals arrive on a three‑win‑in‑four run (WWW DW) and will look to extend that momentum at home. Houston, fresh off a four‑match winning streak (D WWWW), comes in confident but will have to do it on the road.
Jonesy's Verdict
St. Louis’s slightly higher expected‑goals and a 40.9% win probability give them the edge over Houston’s 36.8% chance.
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With St. Louis City averaging 1.8 expected goals and Houston Dynamo averaging 1.7, the model gives a 68.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (St. Louis City 1.8 + Houston Dynamo 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St. Louis City at 40.9%, the draw at 22.3%, and Houston Dynamo at 36.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
St. Louis City
St. Louis City’s recent form includes a 3‑2 home win over Sporting Kansas City and a 1‑1 home draw with Real Salt Lake, showing they can both score and hold firm at home. Their 3‑1 away win at Los Angeles Galaxy and 3‑1 away win at San Jose Earthquakes underline an ability to find the net on the road, reinforcing the notion that they are capable of securing a win in this fixture.
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo’s last five games feature a 1‑1 home draw with DC United and a dominant 3‑0 home victory over Austin, highlighting a sharp attacking edge. Their two consecutive 2‑0 away wins against Sporting Kansas City and New England Revolution demonstrate a recent run of clean sheets, yet the 1.9 away goals‑against average signals defensive vulnerability that St. Louis can exploit.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, St. Louis City have recorded a 3‑0 home win and a 2‑2 draw, while Houston secured a 2‑3 away win and a 1‑0 away win, indicating a balanced rivalry but with the home side having a convincing recent victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | St. Louis City 2-2 Houston Dynamo | US Open Cup |
| 31 Aug 2025 | St. Louis City 2-3 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Houston Dynamo 1-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 6 Oct 2024 | St. Louis City 3-0 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 5 May 2024 | Houston Dynamo 0-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury), K. Hiebert (Hip Injury), B. McSorley (Ankle Injury), T. Pearce (Injury)
Houston Dynamo: I. Aliyu (Red Card), J. Maurer (Concussion), Antonio Carlos (Knee Injury), Lucas Halter (Leg Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
St. Louis City won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was St. Louis City to win.
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
St. Louis City 2-1 Houston Dynamo (full time).
When was St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
St. Louis City played Houston Dynamo on Sun 23 Aug · 01:30 BST in the MLS at CITYPARK.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With the home side’s edge in both scoring and defensive metrics, the model leans toward a home victory despite the close xG figures.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
