Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: Both teams to score - Yes
Toronto FC host Chicago Fire in an MLS clash where the model predicts 1.9 xG for the home side and 1.7 xG for the visitors, backing a high‑scoring encounter.
Both clubs have been involved in tight, open games recently, and their recent form suggests another match with plenty of chances on both ends.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model gives a 69.5% probability that each side will score, reflecting their recent high‑scoring patterns and comparable xG values.
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With Toronto FC averaging 1.9 expected goals and Chicago Fire averaging 1.7, the model gives a 69.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 30.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.6 (Toronto FC 1.9 + Chicago Fire 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 69.7% chance against 30.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Toronto FC at 43.1%, the draw at 21.8%, and Chicago Fire at 35.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Toronto FC
Toronto’s recent five-game run (D 1‑1 vs NYCFC (A), W 2‑1 vs New England (H), D 3‑3 vs Charlotte (H), W 2‑1 vs Inter Miami (A), D 1‑1 vs NYCFC (H)) includes three matches where they both scored and conceded, showing a propensity for open games. The 3‑3 draw against Charlotte especially highlights their ability to find the net even when the opposition is equally dangerous, supporting a BTTS bet.
Chicago Fire
Chicago’s last five fixtures feature three straight 2‑1 victories (vs Charlotte, Portland, Orlando) and two draws (1‑1 vs NY Red Bulls, 2‑2 vs Seattle), each involving at least one goal from the Fire. Their consistent 2‑1 scorelines demonstrate a reliable goal‑scoring habit, meaning they are likely to keep the tally moving against Toronto.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the Fire have won three times and drawn twice, with scorelines of 2‑1, 2‑2, 1‑2, 1‑1, and 1‑4, meaning both sides have scored in four of those games, bolstering the BTTS outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Chicago Fire 2-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Chicago Fire 2-2 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 Jun 2024 | Toronto FC 1-4 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Toronto FC: N. Dorsch (Face Injury), D. Kerr (Lower-Body Injury), J. Osorio (Knee Injury), N. Palacio (Lower-Body Injury)
Chicago Fire: A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), C. Mueller (Inactive), S. Oregel (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire drew 4-4. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire (full time).
When was Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Toronto FC played Chicago Fire on Sun 6 Sep · 00:30 BST in the MLS at BMO Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With both sides averaging close to two goals per game and the model assigning a 69.5% chance to both sides finding the net, the most logical bet is that both teams will score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
