Toronto FC vs New England Revolution: Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC’s 1.9 expected goals clash with New England’s 1.0 xG, pushing the combined threat above the 2.5‑goal line. The model rates the over at 55.4%, the clearest edge in this fixture.
Both sides arrive with uneven runs – Toronto has failed to break a win in their last five league outings, while New England’s recent form oscillates between a heavy win and three defeats. The contrast sets up a match where goal chances matter more than points.
Jonesy's Verdict
The joint expected‑goals total of 2.9 and the model’s 55.4% probability for over 2.5 goals make this the most compelling selection.
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With Toronto FC averaging 1.9 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Toronto FC 1.9 + New England Revolution 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Toronto FC at 58.4%, the draw at 22.1%, and New England Revolution at 19.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Toronto FC
Toronto’s last five league results read L‑D‑D‑L‑D, highlighted by a 1‑2 loss at Chicago Fire and another 1‑2 defeat at DC United, both showing defensive frailties. The two draws (0‑0 at CF Montreal and 1‑1 at New York City FC) underline their struggle to convert chances, reinforcing a propensity for multiple goals when they do score.
New England Revolution
New England’s recent run of L‑D‑W‑D‑L includes a dominant 4‑1 home win over Atlanta United FC, demonstrating their ability to fire three or more goals. However, the surrounding defeats (0‑1 at Charlotte, 0‑2 at Houston Dynamo) and a 2‑2 away draw with CF Montreal reveal inconsistency, meaning the high‑scoring win could lift the total above 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, the clubs have produced two draws (0‑0 and 1‑1) and three decisive games: Toronto won 1‑0, while New England secured 0‑2 and 0‑1 victories, showing that when either side scores, the match often exceeds a single goal.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | New England Revolution 0-0 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Sep 2025 | New England Revolution 1-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 3 May 2025 | Toronto FC 0-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Toronto FC 1-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 3 Mar 2024 | New England Revolution 0-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
Toronto FC: M. Cimermancic (Thigh Injury), N. Gomis (Thigh Injury), Matheus Pereira (Groin Injury), N. Palacio (Lower-Body Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), A. Farrell (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), L. Langoni (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
Toronto FC won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
Toronto FC 2-1 New England Revolution (full time).
When was Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
Toronto FC played New England Revolution on Sun 16 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at BMO Field.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the combined xG above the 2.5 threshold and a history of open scoring, the over‑2.5‑goals market carries the strongest model confidence.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
