TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · TSV 1860 München 0-2 Holstein Kiel TBC

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel: TSV 1860 München to win

TSV 1860 München host Holstein Kiel in the DFB‑Pokal with both sides posting identical expected‑goals of 1.35, making the match a statistical dead‑heat.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

TSV 1860 München to win Lost

Solid · narrow edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

The cup tie pits two 2. Bundesliga clubs whose league campaigns have delivered the same goal threat, so the result will hinge on subtle tactical edges rather than raw firepower.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

TSV 1860 München to win Lost Slight lean Solid · narrow edge

The model assigns 1860 München a 37.1% win probability, marginally higher than the draw odds, making a home win the most defensible single‑outcome bet.

Show the maths

The model’s win probability for 1860 München is 37.1%, identical to Holstein Kiel’s but better than the 25.8% draw rate. With both sides sharing a 1.35 expected‑goals figure, the only statistical edge comes from home advantage, which nudges the win probability above the draw. This gap of 11.3 percentage points (37.1%‑25.8%) underpins the confidence in a home win despite the overall balance.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With TSV 1860 München averaging 1.35 expected goals and Holstein Kiel averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (TSV 1860 München 1.35, Holstein Kiel 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (TSV 1860 München 1.35 + Holstein Kiel 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (TSV 1860 München 1.35 + Holstein Kiel 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has TSV 1860 München at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Holstein Kiel at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

TSV 1860 München expected goals

1.35

Holstein Kiel expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In their recent meetings, Holstein Kiel beat 1860 München 3‑1 in 2018 and lost 2‑1 in 2014, a mixed record that does not strongly favor either side for this fixture.

Date	Result	Competition
19 Aug 2018	TSV 1860 Munich 1-3 Holstein Kiel	DFB Pokal
17 Aug 2014	Holstein Kiel 1-2 TSV 1860 Munich	DFB Pokal

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel?

Holstein Kiel won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was TSV 1860 München to win.

What was the final score of TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel?

TSV 1860 München 0-2 Holstein Kiel (full time).

When was TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel?

TSV 1860 München played Holstein Kiel on Sat 22 Aug · 17:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at TBC.

More DFB-Pokal This Week

See all DFB-Pokal fixtures →

Given the identical xG and the modest draw likelihood, the home side’s slight familiarity with the venue tips the balance toward a narrow victory for 1860 München.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups