Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · Würzburger Kickers 1-2 1. FC Köln Flyeralarm Arena

Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln: Würzburger Kickers to win

Würzburger Kickers enter the DFB‑Pokal tie with a 42.5% win probability, outpacing Köln’s 30.5% according to our model’s expected‑goals figures.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Würzburger Kickers to win Lost

Strong · Expected‑goals edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Lost

50.6% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost

55.7% model probability

The Bavarian underdogs host 1. FC Köln in the first round, and while the cup often produces surprises, the numbers give the Kickers a clear statistical edge.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Würzburger Kickers to win Lost Slight lean Strong · Expected‑goals edge

The model’s 42.5% win probability for the Kickers, boosted by a superior expected‑goals rating, makes this the most compelling single‑outcome bet.

Show the maths

Our expected‑goals model gives Würzburger 1.35 xG and Köln 1.10 xG for the match. The 0.25 xG gap translates into a higher win probability for the home side, which the algorithm converts to a 42.5% chance of a Kickers victory. Köln’s lower win probability (30.5%) and the draw at 27.1% leave the Kickers as the clear statistical favourite.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Lost 50.6% model probability

With Würzburger Kickers averaging 1.35 expected goals and 1. FC Köln averaging 1.1, the model gives a 50.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.4% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Würzburger Kickers 1.35, 1. FC Köln 1.1) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 49.4% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 50.6% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost 55.7% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Würzburger Kickers 1.35 + 1. FC Köln 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 55.7% chance against 44.3% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Würzburger Kickers 1.35 + 1. FC Köln 1.1 = 2.5 combined): 44.3% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 55.7% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Würzburger Kickers at 42.5%, the draw at 27.1%, and 1. FC Köln at 30.5% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Würzburger Kickers expected goals

1.35

1. FC Köln expected goals

1.1

Model BTTS probability

50.6%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.8%

21-0

11.6%

30-1

9.5%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln?

1. FC Köln won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Würzburger Kickers to win.

What was the final score of Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln?

Würzburger Kickers 1-2 1. FC Köln (full time).

When was Würzburger Kickers vs 1. FC Köln?

Würzburger Kickers played 1. FC Köln on Mon 24 Aug · 17:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Flyeralarm Arena.

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With the home side’s scoring potential edging higher and the away side’s defensive record weak, the model’s strongest signal points to a Kickers win.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups