Auriense vs CD San Jose preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · Auriense 2-0 CD San Jose TBC

Auriense vs CD San Jose: Under 2.5 goals

Auriense and CD San Jose arrive in the Copa del Rey with identical expected‑goal outputs of 1.35 each, setting up a tightly contested tie where goals are likely to be at a premium.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Under 2.5 goals Won

Lean · Balanced expectations

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Both sides have matched their scoring rates over the season, so the fixture promises a balanced duel rather than a free‑scoring affair. With the cup’s knockout pressure, teams will prioritize defensive solidity to avoid an early exit.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Under 2.5 goals Won Solid lean Lean · Balanced expectations

The model’s 49.4% probability for a sub‑2.5‑goal result, coupled with identical expected goals for both clubs, makes a low‑scoring outcome the most plausible.

Show the maths

Both teams record an expected‑goal value of 1.35, meaning the combined xG for the match is 2.70. The model translates that into a 49.4% chance of the total staying under 2.5 goals and a 50.6% chance of exceeding it. Since the under probability is only slightly lower than the over, the model leans toward the more conservative outcome, especially given the teams’ identical scoring rates and the match’s knockout nature.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Auriense averaging 1.35 expected goals and CD San Jose averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Auriense 1.35, CD San Jose 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Auriense 1.35 + CD San Jose 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Auriense 1.35 + CD San Jose 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Auriense at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and CD San Jose at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Auriense expected goals

1.35

CD San Jose expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Two fixtures on the cards

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Auriense vs CD San Jose?

Auriense won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.

What was the final score of Auriense vs CD San Jose?

Auriense 2-0 CD San Jose (full time).

When was Auriense vs CD San Jose?

Auriense played CD San Jose on Sun 27 Sep · 11:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the razor‑thin margin between the over and under scenarios and the identical scoring expectations, the safer expectation is that the match will stay under the 2.5‑goal line.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups