Baztán vs Atletico Calatayud: Baztán to draw
Baztán and Atletico Calatayud are evenly matched on paper, each with an expected 1.35 goals and identical win odds of 37.1%. The model still gives the draw the highest relative value among result markets.
Both sides enter this Copa del Rey tie with modest recent form – Baztán have failed to win in their last two league outings, while Atletico Calatayud have only just broken a losing streak with a single victory. The fixture offers a chance for either side to reset, but the numbers suggest a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 25.8% draw probability sits between two equal 37.1% win chances, making a stalemate the most defensible result selection.
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With Baztán averaging 1.35 expected goals and Atletico Calatayud averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Baztán 1.35 + Atletico Calatayud 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Baztán at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Atletico Calatayud at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Baztán
Baztán’s recent league record shows a draw 1‑1 against Ontiñena at home and a 0‑2 loss away to Atletico Calatayud. The inability to secure a win in either fixture underlines why a draw is a realistic expectation for this tie.
Atletico Calatayud
Atletico Calatayud suffered a 0‑3 defeat at Sant Just and a 1‑4 loss at the same opponent before bouncing back with a 2‑0 home win over Baztán. The mixed recent form, highlighted by a heavy loss and a narrow victory, supports the idea that they are unlikely to dominate this encounter.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head saw Atletico Calatayud beat Baztán 2‑0 on 26 September 2026, a result that hints at a possible win but is offset by the equal expected‑goals metric, keeping the draw viable.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Atletico Calatayud 2-0 Baztán | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Baztán vs Atletico Calatayud?
Baztán to draw. The model’s 25.8% draw probability sits between two equal 37.1% win chances, making a stalemate the most defensible result selection.
What does the model give Baztán vs Atletico Calatayud?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Baztán a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Atletico Calatayud 37.1% to win.
When is Baztán vs Atletico Calatayud?
Baztán play Atletico Calatayud on Sat 3 Oct · 16:30 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.
More Copa del Rey This Week
See all Copa del Rey fixtures →Given the symmetry in expected goals and the equal win odds, the draw emerges as the most logical single‑market pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
