CD San Jose vs Auriense: Both teams to score - Yes
San Jose and Auriense enter the Copa del Rey clash with identical expected‑goals of 1.35, but the model flags a clear edge for both sides finding the net.
Both clubs come into the tie after a single recent league result – San Jose fell 0-2 away to Auriense, while Auriense reversed the script with a 2-0 home win. The mirror‑image form underlines that neither side has momentum, making the cup tie a pure test of their underlying attacking rates.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 54.9% probability that both sides will score reflects the equal 1.35 xG each and the recent 2‑0 win for Auriense, indicating both have the firepower to break the deadlock.
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With CD San Jose averaging 1.35 expected goals and Auriense averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (CD San Jose 1.35 + Auriense 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CD San Jose at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Auriense at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CD San Jose
San Jose’s last five league games culminate in a 0‑2 loss away to Auriense, their only listed result. The defeat underlines a lack of attacking output, which makes the 1.35 xG figure crucial – the team must finally convert that latent firepower, supporting a BTTS scenario.
Auriense
Auriense’s recent form is a 2‑0 home win over San Jose, their sole listed result. Scoring twice against the same opponent shows they can exploit San Jose’s defensive frailties, feeding directly into the expectation that both teams will find the net.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 27 Sept 2026 ended 2‑0 to Auriense, confirming the away side’s ability to score and the home side’s defensive weakness, which aligns with the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | Auriense 2-0 CD San Jose | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win CD San Jose vs Auriense?
Both teams to score - Yes. The model’s 54.9% probability that both sides will score reflects the equal 1.35 xG each and the recent 2‑0 win for Auriense, indicating both have the firepower to break the deadlock.
What does the model give CD San Jose vs Auriense?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives CD San Jose a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Auriense 37.1% to win.
When is CD San Jose vs Auriense?
CD San Jose play Auriense on Sun 4 Oct · 15:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.
More Copa del Rey This Week
See all Copa del Rey fixtures →With both teams averaging zero goals at home and away this season, the cup provides the first real chance for them to convert their expected‑goal profiles into actual scores, and the model’s BTTS odds lead the market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
