Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals Sat 3 Oct · 17:00 BST TBC

Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana: Both teams to score - Yes

Ceuta 6 de Junio host Lebrijana in a Copa del Rey tie where both sides have identical expected goals of 1.35, but the model leans heavily on the BTTS market.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes

Strong · high BTTS probability

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

50.6% model probability

Both clubs arrive in stark contrast to their recent league form – Ceuta have yet to record a point in five games, while Lebrijana sit on a solitary win, making this cup clash a rare chance to break their streaks.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Both teams to score - Yes Solid lean Strong · high BTTS probability

The model gives a 54.9% probability that both Ceuta and Lebrijana will score, making this the most likely outcome.

Show the maths

Both clubs have an identical expected goals figure of 1.35, which the model translates into a 54.9% chance of both sides scoring. The win‑draw probabilities are evenly split at 37.1% each, showing no clear advantage for either side. The BTTS market therefore carries the strongest one‑sided edge, with the model’s probability well above 50%. This statistical edge underpins the pick for both teams to score.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes 54.9% model probability

With Ceuta 6 de Junio averaging 1.35 expected goals and Lebrijana averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35, Lebrijana 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35 + Lebrijana 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Ceuta 6 de Junio 1.35 + Lebrijana 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ceuta 6 de Junio at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Lebrijana at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Ceuta 6 de Junio expected goals

1.35

Lebrijana expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Ceuta 6 de Junio

LLLLL

Ceuta 6 de Junio have lost their last five league matches, including a 0‑5 defeat to Lebrijana away and a 0‑3 loss at home to Alcora. These heavy defeats highlight a porous defence and a lack of goals, reinforcing the expectation that they will concede against Lebrijana.

Lebrijana

Lebrijana’s sole recent league result is a 5‑0 home win over Ceuta 6 de Junio, demonstrating a potent attack that easily breached Ceuta’s defence. That dominant performance suggests they will be able to score again in this cup tie.

Head-to-Head

The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 26 Sept 2026 ended 5‑0 to Lebrijana, a result that directly supports the BTTS Yes pick as Lebrijana have proven they can score multiple goals against Ceuta.

Date	Result	Competition
26 Sep 2026	Lebrijana 5-0 Ceuta 6 de Junio	Copa del Rey

Team News

No fresh injury concerns on record for either side as of writing — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff. Check back nearer the day.

Talking Points · Deano

Match slated for early October

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana?

Both teams to score - Yes. The model gives a 54.9% probability that both Ceuta and Lebrijana will score, making this the most likely outcome.

What does the model give Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana?

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Ceuta 6 de Junio a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Lebrijana 37.1% to win.

When is Ceuta 6 de Junio vs Lebrijana?

Ceuta 6 de Junio play Lebrijana on Sat 3 Oct · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the high BTTS likelihood and the lack of defensive solidity shown in recent outings, the safest bet is to back both teams to score.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups