Güímar vs Hortaleza: Over 2.5 goals
Güímar and Hortaleza arrive at the Copa del Rey tie with identical xG of 1.35, but the model nudges the goal‑line over 2.5 thanks to a 50.6% probability for more than two goals.
Both sides have barely scraped past each other in recent league encounters – a 0‑1 loss for Güímar away and a 1‑0 win for Hortaleza at home – making this cup clash a logical continuation of a tightly balanced rivalry.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined xG of 2.70 gives the model a slight majority for an over‑2.5 result, making a goal‑rich game the most likely outcome.
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With Güímar averaging 1.35 expected goals and Hortaleza averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Güímar 1.35 + Hortaleza 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Güímar at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Hortaleza at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Güímar
Güímar’s recent league form is a single loss, the most recent being a 0‑1 defeat away at Hortaleza. That narrow loss shows they can keep games tight but lack scoring punch, reinforcing the view that they will need to find a goal beyond their usual zero‑goal average to push the total over 2.5.
Hortaleza
Hortaleza comes in on a win, a 1‑0 home victory over Güímar. This recent success reflects a capacity to score the decisive goal, but the clean‑sheet suggests they’ll also keep the opposition’s tally low, meaning the match is likely to hinge on a few extra goals rather than a defensive slog.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head sees Hortaleza edging Güímar 1‑0 on 27 Sept 2026, a result that aligns with the low‑scoring pattern but does not rule out a higher‑scoring cup tie.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | Hortaleza 1-0 Güímar | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Güímar vs Hortaleza?
Over 2.5 goals. The combined xG of 2.70 gives the model a slight majority for an over‑2.5 result, making a goal‑rich game the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Güímar vs Hortaleza?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Güímar a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Hortaleza 37.1% to win.
When is Güímar vs Hortaleza?
Güímar play Hortaleza on Sun 4 Oct · 12:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.
More Copa del Rey This Week
See all Copa del Rey fixtures →With the goal threat marginally outweighing the defensive solidity, the most credible reading is that the match will produce more than two goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
