Hortaleza vs Güímar preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · Hortaleza 1-0 Güímar TBC

Hortaleza vs Güímar: Hortaleza Draw No Bet

Hortaleza host Güímar in the Copa del Rey with both sides scoring an identical 1.35 expected goals per game, making the fixture a statistical dead‑heat.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Hortaleza Draw No Bet Won

Lean · Equal odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

The cup tie pits a Madrid‑area side against the islanders of Güímar, but the numbers leave no clear hierarchy – each team’s xG sits at 1.35, and the model assigns identical win probabilities of 37.1%.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Hortaleza Draw No Bet Won Lean · Equal odds

The model’s 37.1% win chance for Hortaleza, coupled with a 25.8% draw probability, makes a draw‑no‑bet on the home side the most balanced option.

Show the maths

The model assigns Hortaleza a 37.1% chance to win and Güímar the same 37.1%, leaving the draw at 25.8%. By selecting Hortaleza Draw No Bet, we effectively combine the win and draw probabilities for Hortaleza, yielding a 62.9% chance of a successful ticket. This probability is derived directly from the equal win odds and the higher draw component relative to a straight win market.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Hortaleza averaging 1.35 expected goals and Güímar averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Hortaleza 1.35, Güímar 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Hortaleza 1.35 + Güímar 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Hortaleza 1.35 + Güímar 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hortaleza at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Güímar at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Hortaleza expected goals

1.35

Güímar expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Copa del Rey showdown confirmed

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Hortaleza vs Güímar?

Hortaleza won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Hortaleza Draw No Bet.

What was the final score of Hortaleza vs Güímar?

Hortaleza 1-0 Güímar (full time).

When was Hortaleza vs Güímar?

Hortaleza played Güímar on Sun 27 Sep · 11:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

More Copa del Rey This Week

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Given the even split in win odds and the modest edge toward a goal‑rich game, the safest bet is to back Hortaleza while shielding against a draw.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups