Prat vs San Rafael: Prat to win
Prat and San Rafael meet in the Copa del Rey with identical expected goals of 1.35 each, and the model splits the win probability evenly at 37.1 %.
Both sides enter the tie on opposite recent notes – Prat recorded a 5‑1 victory over San Rafael away, while San Rafael’s last recorded league result was a 1‑5 loss at home to Prat. The symmetry in their scoring rates and the fresh head‑to‑head result set up a tightly contested encounter.
Robbo's Verdict
Prat’s recent 5‑1 triumph over San Rafael demonstrates a higher conversion rate, aligning with the model’s 37.1 % win probability for the home side.
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With Prat averaging 1.35 expected goals and San Rafael averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Prat 1.35 + San Rafael 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Prat at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and San Rafael at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Prat
Prat’s form list shows a dominant 5‑1 victory over San Rafael away (W 5‑1 vs San Rafael (A)). That result highlights their ability to score heavily when faced with this opponent, reinforcing confidence in a home win this time.
San Rafael
San Rafael’s form list records a 1‑5 loss at home to Prat (L 1‑5 vs Prat (H)). The heavy defeat underscores defensive frailties that make a win for Prat plausible.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 27 Sept 2026 ended 5‑1 to Prat, a clear indicator that Prat have the upper hand in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | San Rafael 1-5 Prat | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Prat vs San Rafael?
Prat to win. Prat’s recent 5‑1 triumph over San Rafael demonstrates a higher conversion rate, aligning with the model’s 37.1 % win probability for the home side.
What does the model give Prat vs San Rafael?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Prat a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and San Rafael 37.1% to win.
When is Prat vs San Rafael?
Prat play San Rafael on Sun 4 Oct · 15:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.
More Copa del Rey This Week
See all Copa del Rey fixtures →Given the identical xG and the split win odds, the safest reading is to back the home side, Prat, whose recent 5‑1 win shows they can convert their scoring chances more effectively.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
