San Rafael vs Prat preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals FT · San Rafael 1-5 Prat TBC

San Rafael vs Prat: Both teams to score – Yes

San Rafael and Prat are evenly matched on paper, each with an expected 1.35 goals and identical win probabilities of 37.1%.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score – Yes Won

Solid · BTTS edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The model shows a perfect statistical symmetry: both sides carry the same expected‑goals figure and identical match‑result odds, meaning the contest will likely be decided by fine margins rather than a clear superiority.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score – Yes Won Solid lean Solid · BTTS edge

The model assigns a 54.9% chance to both sides scoring, the highest confidence among the available markets.

Show the maths

Both clubs have an expected‑goals value of 1.35, which translates to a combined xG of 2.70 for the fixture. The model converts that combined threat into a 54.9% probability that each team will score at least once. Since the win probabilities are evenly split at 37.1% each, the model gives more weight to the BTTS outcome, resulting in the highlighted pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With San Rafael averaging 1.35 expected goals and Prat averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (San Rafael 1.35, Prat 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (San Rafael 1.35 + Prat 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (San Rafael 1.35 + Prat 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Rafael at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Prat at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

San Rafael expected goals

1.35

Prat expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Copa del Rey showdown confirmed

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won San Rafael vs Prat?

Prat won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.

What was the final score of San Rafael vs Prat?

San Rafael 1-5 Prat (full time).

When was San Rafael vs Prat?

San Rafael played Prat on Sun 27 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the tight parity in scoring potential and the model’s BTTS edge, the most decisive market is whether both teams will score.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups