Tavernes vs Maracena: Both teams to score - Yes
Tavernes host Maracena in a Copa del Rey tie where both sides sit on identical expected‑goal figures of 1.35, and the model assigns a clear edge to both teams finding the net.
The fixture pits two clubs that have met recently – the last encounter on 27 September ended in a 1‑1 stalemate – and both arrive with modest recent results, making the scoring battle the focal point.
Robbo's Verdict
Both sides have an xG of 1.35 and the model rates the BTTS chance at 54.9%, making a shared goal the most probable outcome.
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With Tavernes averaging 1.35 expected goals and Maracena averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Tavernes 1.35 + Maracena 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tavernes at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Maracena at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tavernes
Tavernes’ only listed recent result is a 1‑1 draw away at Maracena, showing they can both score and concede. That single draw underlines a balanced attacking and defensive output, which feeds directly into the BTTS outlook.
Maracena
Maracena’s recent league run includes a 2‑0 home win over Sporting Ceuta and a 0‑5 home loss to Valencia. The win demonstrates their ability to score, while the heavy defeat shows they also leak goals, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides finding the net.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 1‑1, directly supporting the BTTS prediction as both teams already proved they can score against each other.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | Maracena 1-1 Tavernes | Copa del Rey |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Tavernes vs Maracena?
Both teams to score - Yes. Both sides have an xG of 1.35 and the model rates the BTTS chance at 54.9%, making a shared goal the most probable outcome.
What does the model give Tavernes vs Maracena?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Tavernes a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Maracena 37.1% to win.
When is Tavernes vs Maracena?
Tavernes play Maracena on Sun 4 Oct · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.
More Copa del Rey This Week
See all Copa del Rey fixtures →With every metric pointing to a mutual scoring threat, the logical read leans heavily toward both teams putting a ball in the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
