Tedeón vs Anaitasuna preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Copa del Rey · 1/128-finals Sat 3 Oct · 17:00 BST TBC

Tedeón vs Anaitasuna: Both teams to score - Yes

Tedeón and Anaitasuna head into a Copa del Rey clash with identical expected goals of 1.35 each, and a model that sees the match evenly poised at 37.1% for either side.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes

Solid · Balanced xG

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

50.6% model probability

Both clubs have only one recent league result on record – Tedeón’s last outing was a 0‑5 loss and Anaitasuna’s most recent game was a 5‑0 win – setting a stark contrast in momentum heading into this knockout tie.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Solid lean Solid · Balanced xG

The model puts the BTTS chance at 54.9%, well above the 50% threshold, indicating both sides are likely to find the net.

Show the maths

Both teams have an expected goals value of 1.35, meaning each is projected to score roughly one and a half goals on average. The model translates this symmetry into equal win odds of 37.1% and a draw at 25.8%, but the BTTS probability rises to 54.9% because each side's xG suggests they will breach the opponent's net in more than half of simulations. This BTTS figure directly stems from the combined xG of 2.70, which the model interprets as a high likelihood of at least two goals in total, favouring both teams to score.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes 54.9% model probability

With Tedeón averaging 1.35 expected goals and Anaitasuna averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Tedeón 1.35, Anaitasuna 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Tedeón 1.35 + Anaitasuna 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Tedeón 1.35 + Anaitasuna 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tedeón at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Anaitasuna at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Tedeón expected goals

1.35

Anaitasuna expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Tedeón

Tedeón's only listed recent league result is a 0‑5 defeat (away) against Anaitasuna, showing a severe defensive lapse. That single loss highlights a vulnerability that makes conceding a goal highly probable, reinforcing the BTTS outlook.

Anaitasuna

Anaitasuna's lone recent league result is a 5‑0 home victory over Tedeón, demonstrating a potent attack. Scoring five goals in that encounter underlines their ability to breach Tedeón's defence, supporting the expectation that both sides will score.

Head-to-Head

The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 26 September 2026 ended 5‑0 to Anaitasuna, a result that aligns with the model’s BTTS probability by confirming Anaitasuna’s scoring capacity against Tedeón.

Date	Result	Competition
26 Sep 2026	Anaitasuna 5-0 Tedeón	Copa del Rey

Team News

No fresh injury concerns on record for either side as of writing — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff. Check back nearer the day.

Talking Points · Deano

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2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Tedeón vs Anaitasuna?

Both teams to score - Yes. The model puts the BTTS chance at 54.9%, well above the 50% threshold, indicating both sides are likely to find the net.

What does the model give Tedeón vs Anaitasuna?

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Tedeón a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Anaitasuna 37.1% to win.

When is Tedeón vs Anaitasuna?

Tedeón play Anaitasuna on Sat 3 Oct · 17:00 BST in the Copa del Rey at TBC.

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Given the balanced xG and the high BTTS probability, the most compelling market is the goal‑both‑teams‑to‑score option.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups